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Human Influenza Pandemic – The Next Disaster?

September 2006

As evidenced in this month’s article on disaster relief, communities have come to rely on business for information, direction and resources in times of disaster. Demonstrating citizenship in the most tangible of ways, business has played a major role during 9/11, SARS, the Asian Tsunami, and other disasters.

For months we’ve been hearing about the possibility that a human influenza pandemic will be yet another disaster for which corporations must be prepared. Analyst Richard Martin, in a 2006 Asian Issues Management Paper on “Managing Bird Flu: Pandemic Business Continuity Plans” predicts “companies will face a steady increase in requests for information on their pandemic preparedness from employees, customers, suppliers, and – quite possibly - shareholders over the next year.”

What exactly is the threat?

On Nov. 7, 2005, Lee Jong-Wook, former director-general of the WHO, stated “It is only a matter of time before an avian-flu virus – most likely H5N1 – acquires the ability to be transmitted from human to human, sparking the outbreak of human pandemic influenza. We don’t know when this will happen. But we do know that it will happen.”

The first human case of H5N1 avian flu was reported in 1997. As of July 20, 2006, WHO reported 231 human cases of avian influenza A/(H5N1), primarily in Asia. Of that number 133, or 58 percent, resulted in death.

While the vast majority of bird flu viruses do not infect humans, there is fear the H5N1 could adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans, creating a new human influenza virus. Such a change could mark the start of a global outbreak – a pandemic. The WHO has a six phase alert system to inform the world of the threat of a pandemic. Currently the world is in phase 3, which is a sign that “a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among humans.”

Ed Nicholson, director of community and public relations for Tyson Food, Inc., acknowledges a mutation of the avian flu virus into a human influenza pandemic is a scary prospect, but he says there is virtually no risk of avian influenza in U.S. poultry. For a company like Tyson, says Nicholson, a real challenge has been communicating that avian influenza and any potential form of human pandemic are two completely separate issues. “As corporations begin their pandemic preparation, it is vitally important that they understand the 'trigger' events should not include the appearance of what is now essentially an animal disease,” he cautioned.

Even Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of The University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), who speaks widely about the dangers of a pandemic, notes that distinguishing H5N1 in the bird population from pandemic influenza has been poorly covered in the press.

The effect of a pandemic in our shrinking world

Given the interconnection and interdependence of our global world, the economic and social disruption of a pandemic could be devastating. In a recent Washington Post article, “Business Plan for a Pandemic?” David Brown writes: “Pandemic influenza is the latest imponderable facing U.S. business, a form of unwanted globalization that threatens the life and health of even the smallest companies in the most literal way.”

Lean supply chains, just-in-time inventories and outsourcing have resulted in efficiencies. But these same strengths leave companies vulnerable in a disaster. All contributors to business operations would be affected – employees, suppliers, customers – limiting operational capabilities, sales opportunities, and resource procurement.

In a Business Week on-line article, John Carey writes “… essential services such as water or power would be disrupted, supply chains cut, international travel and trade halted, and crucial workers sickened or killed. Compared with the potential devastation, some common company preparations to date – stockpiling masks or telling employees to wash their hands – seem like whistling past the graveyard.”

Projections of the number of people affected by a pandemic influenza are based on experience from three pandemics of the 20th century, the most devastating being the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 40-50 million people worldwide.

The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza released by the White House in November 2005 highlighted the unique circumstance created by a pandemic. “While a pandemic will not damage power lines, banks, or computer networks, it will ultimately threaten all critical infrastructure by removing essential personnel from the workplace for weeks or months.”

The SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus, which was considerably less dangerous than a pandemic, virtually shut down Asian travel for three months. Eight hundred people died from SARS, but the economic impact was estimated to be somewhere between US$30 to 50 billion.

Two sources, a Yale Global OnLine excerpt from a WHO publication SARS: How a Global Epidemic Was Stopped, and a CDC publication The Public/Private Response to Sudden Disease Outbreak, provide essential lessons learned for business from SARS. Both documents highlight the importance of transparent and accurate communication, strong leadership and developing solid connections between business leaders and public health officials.

In February 2006 CIDRAP held a national summit on business planning for pandemic influenza, attended by representatives of over 200 companies. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt told conference participants, “Whether it’s the current avian flu or some other form of influenza that turns into a pandemic, we are overdue and underprepared.” He emphasized the importance of state and local planning efforts. “Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government will, at the last moment, be able to come to the rescue will be tragically wrong.”

Is business prepared?

The good news is there is advanced warning. The bad news is this falls into the category of a low probability, high impact scenario, which makes it challenging to determine the extent of response. Not surprisingly, those with the most resources and potential exposure – large multi-national corporations – are at the forefront of preparation.

Surveys of business show there is widespread belief there will be a global flu epidemic with severe economic and social consequences. Yet, there’s a gap between concern about the impact of a human pandemic and actual planning for such an event.

During the past year, there has been an increase in the number of companies addressing the potential of a pandemic. A recent informal web survey by The Center for Corporate Citizenship showed a more promising landscape in terms of business preparation for a pandemic. The majority (73 percent) of businesses are planning for a potential pandemic. Forty-four percent have actually put a preparedness plan in place; 52 percent have formed a committee or team; and 32 percent have started some discussion. The variety of sector participation in the survey – financial, energy, health, retail, communications, technology, arts – was notable. However, most companies (68 percent) have not specifically set aside a budget for pandemic planning and response. (Click here to view the full survey.)

The Conference Board found nearly three-fourths of the global companies surveyed, and almost all of those with more than $5 billion in sales had an up-to-date plan or were in the process of preparing one. Smaller, privately held companies, however, are not prepared.

“Disasters provide opportunity for companies to strengthen relationships with communities,” says Tyson’s Ed Nicholson. “It’s an opportunity to step up and walk the walk in regard to citizenship.”

Having been affected by all the latest disasters, Pitney Bowes is building off its business recovery experience to help inform the planning process for a pandemic. The head of Pitney Bowes’ Pandemic Preparedness Team is Brent Pawlecki, M.D., M.M.M., and associate medical director. “From my perspective the most essential piece of corporate planning is making certain individual employees are ready.” Every company department is involved on the planning team at Pitney Bowes. This cross functional, cross processes involvement, Pawlecki says, helps gain efficiencies that make for a better company.

Preparing for disasters has brought risk management squarely into the world of corporate citizenship. Says Booz Allen Vice President Chris Kelly, "Companies can no longer think of CSR [corporate social responsibility] as a discretionary activity; it must be a core element of their risk strategy, particularly as companies expand worldwide.” Increasingly, the phenomenon of convergence – the union of business functions and processes – to address business risks is fostering interdependencies of previously siloed environments. This works to the advantage of efforts to integrate corporate citizenship within companies.

Karen L. Coyne, Vice President of CoVeris, Inc., a firm specializing in sustainability, security, and environmental, health and safety auditing and consulting, has witnessed first-hand the movement toward convergence of corporate roles in the arena of planning for disasters such as a pandemic. As a member of the Global Roundtable Steering Committee on Private and Public Sector Preparedness, she recently attended the International Public-Private Preparedness Summit sponsored by New York University's International Center for Enterprise Preparedness (InterCEP) in Florence.

“We are seeing a trend where the corporate social responsibility efforts in multinational corporations are converging and blending with other previously separate functions within the corporations. Whether driven in response to external events or in preparation of business continuity plans for the supply chain in the event of an avian flu pandemic, corporate citizenship activities are maturing and converging with the security, business continuity, risk management, humanitarian aid and disaster relief functions. It is the ability of the corporate citizenship function to see across the silos, to connect and align the internal corporate approach, and to shape and direct the external stakeholder engagement that is fueling this convergence. We believe this trend will become more pronounced in the foreseeable future."

More information

Considerable amount of information is available on all aspects of avian flu and a potential human pandemic, including the following resources:

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